The Phoenix Suns will try to extend their winning streak to seven games when they visit the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night.
This is the second meeting this season between the two teams after the Mavericks handed the Suns a 128-114 defeat in December, which dropped Phoenix to 14-15.
The Suns went on to win their next four games and 11 of 14 since that December defeat.
Their recent surge coincides with the return of Bradley Beal, who missed the Dallas game while recovering from an ankle injury.
Beal’s presence as a third scoring threat behind Kevin Durant and Devin Booker makes the Suns all the more dangerous in this revenge spot.
Suns analysis
Having Beal available allows the Suns to share the workload among the Suns’ triumvirate of stars.
Per NBA.com, they already have the third-worst scoring bench (27.4 points per game) in the league, so inserting a role player into the starting lineup further weakens the team in both aspects.
Perhaps the Suns shouldn’t be too concerned with their lack of bench production. After all, the Nuggets, Celtics and 76ers are all 25th or worse in this category.
Of those teams, only the Celtics and Suns have three players who average at least 18 points per game. That’s pretty good company, considering Boston has the best record in the league at 34-10.
Since losing to the Mavericks, the Suns have the seventh-best offensive rating with a 121.2 value. Phoenix’s burgeoning offense is mainly responsible for its much-improved net rating (+6.3).
Through the first 29 games of the season, the Suns managed a -0.1 net rating, as Beal played in just six games.
Mavericks analysis
While the Suns are starting to get healthy, it’s the Mavericks who are now struggling with injuries.
Luka Doncic has tightness in his lower back, while Kyrie Irving is battling a thumb sprain on his shooting hand.
Both players are questionable and listed as a game-time decision for Wednesday night’s game.
Even if they play, I doubt they will be close to 100%. A back injury can be excruciatingly painful, while a thumb injury could compromise Irving’s shooting.
Betting on the NBA?
The good news for Mavericks fans is they’re still only 1.5 games out of first place in the Southwest Division.
The bad news is that Dallas could be due for some regression, considering they’re 14-5 in clutch games when the scoring margin is within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining in the fourth quarter or overtime.
Those numbers tend to even out more or less over time.
With the Mavericks catching 2.5 points as home underdogs, we could be in line for another clutch finish down the stretch.
Suns vs. Mavericks prediction
(8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Winning by margin has been difficult for Phoenix this season.
According to our Action Labs database, the Suns have the second-worst record against the spread (ATS) at 15-27-1 (-13.38 units).
However, they haven’t been as bad on the road (8-10 ATS) vs. when playing at home (7-17-1 ATS). Thus, I’d much rather back them on the road in this spot.
Furthermore, this revenge road angle is particularly intriguing. This season, the Suns are 4-0 against the spread when facing a team it previously lost to by double digits.
If you missed the opening number with the Suns as 1.5-point favorites, I’d recommend just backing them on the moneyline because it wouldn’t surprise me if we see another close game.
After shopping around, BetRivers has the best price on the board with -134 odds, but if you can’t find -140 or better, lay the points with the visitors at -2.5.
Pick: Suns ML (-134, BetRivers)
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